Hello all,

More profit taking on our open orders expected this week. We also have a few new trades coming as the pullback has begun. Too soon to know if it is too soon to enter or now, we can only follow what works - our trading plan.

4 Hour:

Current Drop In Criteria: EUR/USD buy EUR/JPY buy USD/CAD sell USD/CHF sell

Watching:

USD/JPY short ZLC AUD/USD buy Drop In

Coming off a month of strong profits as we were able to catch a good portion of all trending pairs it is important to remember not all trades are going to be winners. What is important to understand that our risk/reward on each trade ranges from at least 2:1 to 9:1 so we know that after taking several losses it will only take us a few profitable trades to recover from any draw down. Also we simply do not know what is going to happen at any time and these new entries may just continue to extend our gains on our current positions.

Subscribe to these updates by email or rss feed here. You can also follow me on Twitter here.

According to a survey conducted by Rothstein Kass in May 2009, private equity industry is skeptical about current market rally. Based on survey, more than 90% of middle-market private equity fund managers believe that the credit crisis will last into next year. Despite that pessimism, most firms hope to raise capital this year and plan to take a more active role in running their portfolio companies to combat the weak economy.  More specifically, 83% of respondents expect new investors to enter the market, though not to the exclusion of high net-worth investors, from whom 77% of those surveyed expect to see new money. By contrast, only 43% expect institutional investors as a major source of new capital. Also, Rothstein’s survey shows that most private equity managers don’t expect a recovery until the middle of next year.  Managers are looking for ways to improve the returns of their portfolio companies.  Nearly four in five expect to have greater involvement there, up from 63% last year. A second Rothstein Kass survey of ultra-high net-worth investors finds that only 24% are highly satisfied with their current private equity investments. This shows that investors are worried about private equity firm’s returns and expect a prolonged period of economic weakness.    

There is a very strong bearish sell signal on the Eur/Usd as shown in the following chart: EURUSD Signal Source: Tradign Central

Inter-market correlation pointed to a rally on the EUR/USD currency pair during the first 30 minutes of today’s US equity market session. The rally broke a downtrend line, and a conservative long trade entry came in the form of a re-test of that former source of resistance. A 60-pip profit was the reward for those who closed the trade after the euro stalled near a psychological level as the London close approached. Those who held the trade through today’s 30-year Treasury bond auction, then cashed out at the daily M4 pivot point, earned a greater prize of 120 pips. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

8:30 GMT: GBP - Consumer Inflation Expectations - This indicator reflects the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months - Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise. - The release of this indicator typically creates volatile trading as it is directly correlated with the value of the national currency - A better than previous result may continue to boosts the GBP in the short-term. 12:30 GMT: USD - U.S Unemployment Claims - This indicator reflects the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. - This release is expected to be better than their previous figures. - Meaning the USD could continue to show further bullishness today. - If the results turn out to be lower than forecasts, the Dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today’s trading. Crude Oil Tips: - Crude Oil prices experienced another day of appreciation as the oft-traded commodity rose above $72. - If the U.S. publishes more positive economic news, oil prices will continue to be bullish going into next week. - As for today, the economic figures coming out of the U.S. and Europe are likely to impact the volatility of oil prices.

Hello all,

Much quieter today after having the setups we had been waiting for to get some additional positions into the current movements came to be. All those trades have either profited or the stop losses are set to break even.

4 Hour:

12:00 GMT: USD/JPY buy ZLC

Watching:

EUR/USD for a buy Drop In

Just some fun with the charts today as the only new trade is on the USD/JPY today, let's take a look

Subscribe to these updates by email or rss feed here. You can also follow me on Twitter here.

8:30 GMT: GBP - Manufacturing Production - This indicator reflects the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. - Manufacturing makes up around 80% of total Industrial Production and tends to dominate the market impact. - The release of this indicator typically creates volatile trading. - A stronger than expected result may continue to boost the GBP in the short-term. 12:30 GMT: USD - U.S Trade Balance - This indicator reflects the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. - Better-than-expected results may help the Dollar recover some of yesterday’s losses against some of its crosses such as the EUR and GBP. - If the results turn out to be lower than forecasts, the Dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today’s trading. - Traders should pay close attention to the market as there is an opportunity for traders to capitalize on the fluctuations which are likely to follow this release. Crude Oil tips: - Crude oil hit a 7-month high and closed above $70 yesterday (currently at $71.50) - Oil rose on increasing optimism that the world economy is emerging from recession. - Today, the release of the Crude Oil Inventories report is likely to help determine the market’s next direction for oil. - Traders are advised now to make some profits as the price of Crude Oil is set to remain volatile in the short-medium term.

Today’s New York trading session was devoid of major US news events, and lower than normal volatility in the currency markets was the rule. However, there were opportunities to profit. For example, a classic range trade on the EUR/JPY produced a 60-pip profit before today’s London close. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

10:00 GMT: EUR - German Industrial Production: - This indicator reflects the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. - It’s a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. - This release is expected to be lower than its previous figures. - This means the EUR/USD could show bearishness today if it comes inline with expectations. 14:30 GMT: USD - U.S Treasury Secretary Geithner Speech Due to testify on his department’s budget before the Senate Appropriations Committee in Washington DC His speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and foreign governments. His speeches have had a very strong impact on the forex market lately. However, he is not expected to say anything that could create a lot of volatility today; will likely be a muted impact. Crude Oil tips: - Crude Oil was trading lower during yesterday’s trading session, extending Friday’s losses as the dollar strengthened. - As for today, crude oil might continue this downward correction. - Target price may be as low as $67.

Hello all,

On the H4 all 5 entries stopped out for 1.67% loss. This is the time to be tough and roll with the punches and keep going. We have re-entries approaching on all 5 pairs on the 4 hour. ATR's all current below for the new trades.

4 Hour:

12:00 GMT: Drop In  re-entries

GBP/USD buy re-entry Drop In criteria (atr = 204 ) USD/CAD sell re-entry Drop In criteria (atr = 159) USD/CHF sell re-entry Drop In criteria (atr = 117) EUR/USD buy re-entry Drop In criteria (atr = 161) AUD/USD buy re-entry Drop In criteria (atr = 143)

Looking at the GBP/USD we see we are buying into a falling market, is that a problem?

Let's take a look at the chart and at how the Conquer trading system works to exploit trends. The trend (true trend) is up (positive) and price (stoch) has pulled back to oversold areas (below the 30 level) giving us a price pullback in a up trend. Our entry is the 1st sign price is resuming back toward the trend (making a higher high than the previous price bar.

We are buying price pullbacks into up trends.

Subscribe to these updates by email or rss feed here. You can also follow me on Twitter here.

12:15 GMT – CAD – Housing Starts - Number of new residential buildings which began construction during the previous month. - Released monthly, but in an annualized format. - Figure is forecast to rise from last month to 127K from 118K. - Could have a positive impact on the CAD if forecast is accurate. Gold Tips: - Gold prices just breached the lower border in the recent uptrend. - If prices hit $950, a downtrend may occur – target $940. - If prices fail to go below $955, price may rebound upwards and continue trend – target $990. Crude Oil Tips: - Crude Oil prices are in a steady uptrend. - Price has begun larger fluctuations, but continues to range-trade. - Today’s low and high price may be near $68 and $70, respectively.

Hello all,

As expected we are having pullbacks on almost all our pairs and are getting ready for new entries. See below for the pairs we are watching.

"MUCH movement on all pairs today which will be setting up many pairs with new Drop In entries in the coming hours. This is the time to be alert. If you have not yet signed up for the email/sms alerts this is a good time to go ahead and do so now." Anyone who needs to switch to Interbank FX Demo data click here. 4 Hour: USD/JPY sell Drop In criteria (orders still have not triggered) 16:00 GMT: GBP/USD buy Drop In criteria Watching: USD/CAD sell Drop In criteria USD/JPY buy ZLC Conquer: - last update 14:42 GMT 6.5.2009

Subscribe to these updates by email or rss feed here. You can also follow me on Twitter here.

8:30 GMT- GBP PPI Input * This indicator reflects the change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers. * This data release is forecasted to improve from the previous month’s result. * The results typically create volatile market conditions. * Higher than forecasted results could send the GBP/USD pair above the 1.6150 mark. 12:30 GMT- U.S Non-Farm Employment Change * This indicator reflects the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the US farming industry. *The indicator typically creates a volatile trading environment, affecting not only the USD crosses but also the value of Crude Oil and Gold. *Disappointing results could send the EUR/USD pair above the 1.4400 resistance level. *Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following this vital and probably the most important announcement of the month. Tips on Crude Oil * Crude Oil rose significantly yesterday as the price is currently trading around the $69 level. * The release of the U.S. Unemployment Rate data on Friday may put some strain on Oil prices as the rate is expected to rise. *However, as optimism seems to be the leading force in the market, rising equities and a weakening Dollar may prove to have a greater affect on Oil prices than the results of the unemployment indicator.