With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for the moment and some sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, break of 90.06 resistance is still needed to indicate that choppy fall from 92.31 has completed. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish and another fall should still be seen. Below 88.73 will target a test on 88.00 low first. Break will target a test on key support of 87.12 low.

In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged. Fall from 101.43 is treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 124.13. Break of 87.12 low will confirm resumption of this down trend and should target next key level of 1995 low at 79.75. However, note that break of 92.31 resistance will firstly suggest that fall from 97.77 has completed. Additionally, this will raise the possibility that whole decline from 101.43 has finished with three waves down to 88.00 after meeting 100% projection of 101.43 to 91.73 from 97.77 at 88.07. The three wave structure will in turn indicate that rise from 87.12 is going to resume. Further break of 97.77 will target a retest of 101.43 instead.

TOKYO, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The dollar was on slippery ground on Thursday after the Australian dollar jumped to a 15-month high on strong jobs data that boosted expectations of an interest rate hike next month.

The Aussie was also buoyed by firm commodity prices like gold, which hit a record high for the second straight day. [GOL/]

The dollar was under pressure on expectations that Asia-Pacific finance ministers gathered in Singapore ahead of a summit of their national leaders this weekend were set to call for flexible exchange rates.

The latest draft communique to be issued following their meeting on Thursday calls for "market-oriented" exchange rates and interest rates. [ID:nSP423373]

"The dollar is likely to keep facing selling pressure during the APEC finance ministers meeting," said a trader for a Japanese trust bank.

The 21-member Pacific Rim group includes China, which is under pressure, particularly from the United States, to allow its currency to rise.

Dealers said they were watching further developments after China said it would consider using a basket of currencies, not just the dollar, in guiding the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan CNY=, its clearest signal yet that it was close to letting the yuan appreciate after an 18-month hiatus. [ID:nSP466424]

The dollar index .DXY, a gauge of the greenback's performance against six major currencies, was at 75.032, down 0.2 percent on the day. The index on Wednesday hit a fresh 15-month low of 74.774.

AUSSIE JUMPS ON RATE OUTLOOK

The euro and yen crosses trimmed earlier gains made in tandem with the Aussie's rise after regional stock markets turned negative. But they held firm as traders waited to see if European and U.S. players push the dollar down further when they join the market later in the day.

With India purchasing of 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF for US$ 6.7 billion last week — a far cry from the 67 tonnes of gold that India had to humiliatingly pledge in 1991 to stave off an imminent forex crisis — the debate on the need to diversify the forex reserves of the surplus countries has gathered fresh momentum.

Some developing countries have argued that the pain of structural adjustments in their economies consequent to the global financial meltdown has been felt more by countries other than the US because, unlike others, the US can pay for its massive imports in its own domestic currency. This is facilitated by the pre-eminent role of the dollar as a global currency that is held as reserves by countries with surplus trade balances.

China has been known to be actively diversifying away from the dollar over the last few months by investing in strategic holdings of non-ferrous metals and oil wells abroad but with nearly $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves, it has not much of an option but to participate in the process of adjustment in the global balance of payments in order to ensure the safety of its massive financial claims on the rest of the World.

USD/CHF recovers in early US session but after all it's still limited below 1.0224 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for the moment and fall from 1.0337 might extend further. But still, downside should be contained above 1.0032 support and bring rise resumption. Above 1.0224 will flip intraday bias back to the upside first. Further break of 1.0337 will target a test on 1.0452 structural resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole set of price actions from 1.2296 are treated as correction to the medium term rally from 2008 low of 0.9634. Fall from 1.1963 is the third wave of such correction and has possibly completed it's own five wave sequence already (1.1158, 1.1740, 1.0590, 1.0883, 1.0032). Break of 1.0452 resistance will affirm this case and turn focus to 1.0883 resistance for confirmation. Also, note that break of 1.0883 will be an important signal that whole consolidation from 1.2296 has completed too and stronger medium term rise should then be seen to retest 1.1963/2296 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, below 1.0032 low will indicate that the medium term down trend is still in progress and will pave the way to retest 2008 low of 0.9634.

The euro increased against the dollar and the Swiss franc as the European stocks jumped today ahead of a key U.S. employment report. Meanwhile, the euro recovered its Asian session's loss against the pound and the yen.

The euro strengthened against the dollar in early deals on Friday. Currently, the euro-dollar pair is worth 1.4906, up from Thursday's close of 1.4871. If the pair climbs further, it may target the 1.4919 level.

During early deals on Friday, the euro climbed to a 3-day high of 1.5129 against the Swiss franc. The next upside target level for the euro-franc pair is seen at 1.5175. At yesterday's close, the pair was quoted at 1.5115.

The euro that fell to 134.50 against the yen at 2:10 am ET Friday reversed direction thereafter. As of now, the euro-yen pair is worth 134.86, compared to 135.01 hit late New York Thursday. On the upside, 135.75 is seen as the next target level for the European currency.

The euro advanced against the pound after touching a low of 0.8949 at 2:30 am ET Friday. At present, the euro-pound pair is trading near yesterday's close of 0.8970. The near term resistance for the pair is seen around the 0.905 level.

The following article includes analysis from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. For more insights from Robert Prechter, download the 75-page eBook Independent Investor eBook. It’s a compilation of some of the New York Times bestselling author’s writings that challenge conventional financial market assumptions. Visit Elliott Wave International to download the eBook, free.

Once upon a time, the term “Black Monday” was to Wall Street what the name “Lord Voldemort” was to Hogwarts. It turned the air freezing cold and sent traders flinching around every corner in fear of a repeat of the October 19, 1987 or October 28, 1929 meltdown.

Case in point: The 2008 “Black Monday” anniversary. At the time, the U.S. stock market was locked in a ferocious downtrend that included regular, triple-digit daily declines of 400 points and more. Needless to say, when the final two Mondays of October arrived, the least superstitious investors surrounded their portfolios with more good-luck talismans than a Bingo player. See October 19, 2008 AP headline below:

“Black Monday: Stocks Sink As Gloom Seizes Wall Street. Prolonged Economic Turmoil” is seen.

That was then. Today, the usual dread surrounding the back-to-back string of “Black Mondays” is nowhere to be found. In its place, media reports abound of a new, global bull market “shrugging off,” “ignoring,” and “making a distant memory” of the event.

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