EUR/USD started around 1.4880 and gently ticked higher eventually reaching session high 1.4905, where ACB selling emerged capping the rally. Comments from ECB’s Nowotny, suggesting any ECB tightening is some ways away, helped pressure the pairing and we’ve drifted back to where we started, presently at 1.4875.

Talk of sell orders at 1.4900 up through 1.4950. Also talk of specific ACB standing sell orders up at 1.4920/30, good till nfps. Also talk of decent stops starting just North of 1.4915, so somewhat of a mixed bag up ahead.

Cable finishing morning marginally easier, presently at 1.6590 from an early 1.6615. The pairing rallied early but intially ran into good sell interest at 1.6620, rumoured to have been the BIS. However these rumours were later quoshed, the selling apparently having been down to a French name.

After a brief dip though, cable rallied again, reaching session high 1.6635, where decent selling from a UK clearer capped the rally. There was talk of stops gathered around 1.6640, but these remained safe.

The Dollar rose against the Euro erasing Thursday's losses. EUR/USD fell to 1.4700 (intra-day low) but failed to break below. The Euro did not hold above 1.4800 and weakened. The fall in stocks helped Greenback that finished the week higher for the first since late September

EUR/USD finished October with gains for the fourth consecutive month but far from the highs. The Euro pulled back after reaching at 1.5060 the highest price in 14 months.

Ilian Yotov, from AllthingForex comments on the coming month: "The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls plus four interest rate announcements from the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank could set the trend for equities, commodities and currencies in the month ahead."

The guys over at Citibank have been having the same problems as myself the last few weeks, they are being chopped around in the wash. Nevertheless they always think their technical, fundamental and market arguments through before putting on a trade. They have gone short EUR/USD at 1.3800, with a target at 1.3350 and a stop-loss at 1.3950. They have been tracking a H&S on the Gold chart which has now broken down and, although lagging slightly, they expect a similar formation to continue developing on the EUR/USD chart.

EUR/USD continues its slide, nearing 1.3930, the 61.8% rtetracement of the 1.3800/1.4145 rally. A break suggests price could dip back to the key support level at 1.3800.

Oil is giving back some of its gains after proving more resilient than the other commodity markets this afternoon. Crude is at 70.60 at writing.

Sources report talk of sell orders lying in wait up at 1.3970/80 in EUR/USD.

Not much in the way of support until the 20-day MA at 1.3890 but it is the previous low at 1.3800 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.3780 which provide the stronger base. Resistance levels are also scarce until 1.4050/65, a prior high/low pivot level.

The low from Friday was 1.3934 and we are only 15 pips above there presently. With a 5 wave up-move from 1.2870 to 1.4340 now complete, it’s certainly possible that a short-term top is in place and that we are in retracement mode. The 38.2% of that up-move is at 1.3780. (Technicals to come).

After important changes to the trading system optimization methodology, I am revisiting EUR/USD on the day scale. The USD/CAD and USD/CHF reports indicated that our range of trade entry parameter might not include the optimum, consequently the range is extended. As a result, much better performance figures are seen. But caution is needed when comparing even the "minimum-bias" results with those of earlier reports, since the parameter ranges are now different.

EUR/USD is trading in soimilar fashion to Wednesday when hedge funds headed for the exits en masse. Bids at 1.4100 are being absorbed. 1.4070, the spike low from yesterday is the next focus. Large stops are perched below that level.

As I indicated in yesterday’s wrap-up, I’m not entirely sure whether the market would greet an upbeat US employment report by adding to the reflation trade (and selling the dollar) or take the data at face value and buying it. Best be prepared for any scenario by looking at important points both above and below the market. 1.4230/40 is important resistance in the near-term. Prices stalled at 1.4240 in London Thursday morning and at 1.4230 today. Above that, 1.4335/40 is the focus. The BIS was seen selling on the two occasions when we visited that level earlier this week. 1.4350 barriers are expected.  On the downside, 1.4085, an hourly uptrend from the 1.3425 area is first support at 1.4085. 1.4070, yesterday’s spike low is also eyed; 1.4050 is further support. Central bank bids have been scattered below the market all week.