The drained reserves really worries me. Why does it seem that folks are overlooking this issue? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqxHLAHU_m2k
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FDIC Worries me
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August 20 2009, 7:04pm | Comments »
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Accumulation/distribution: when will this explode?
Dollar and yen have avoided the recently popular 13.30 gmt move. Maybe we will see move 14.30 to 15.30 range or later. A move seems to be on the books. Market makers waiting for best timing. My guess is dollar and yen will strengthen today making substantial retrace of yesterday’s moves. Comments would be nice.
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August 20 2009, 5:44pm | Comments »
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Cable trader of the year is…….
The Bank for International Settlements, better known as the BIS. Having scooped up cable below 1.6400 yesterday around 1.6375, they apparently sold into the earlier rally around the highs. At least a 2 big figure profit. Nice work if you can get it!!!!
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August 20 2009, 12:42pm | Comments »
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UK July retail sales +0.4% m/m, +3.3% y/y
UK July retail sales came in at +0.4% m/m, +3.3% y/y compared to our forecasts of +0.4% and +2.7% respectively. Seems the market’s median forecasts were a little different though, basically +0.2% and +2.6%. That’s the good news. The bad news is that PSNB came in at £8.016 bln way above median forecast of a deficit around £500 mln (we had +0.6 bln), underlining collapse of tax revenues due to deep recession. . PSNCR came in at £182 mln compared to a median forecast of -£6.25 bln (we had -£5.6 bln) Cable peeked above 1.6600 fleetingly before being batted back, presently losing altitude quickly down at 1.6550.
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August 20 2009, 11:50am | Comments »
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Cable ticking higher again
Cable is moving higher again, presently at 1.6585. Would suspect some sell orders at 1.6590/00 with maybe some buy stops parked just above 1.6600, but unfortunately have no confirmation of either. We’ll see pretty soon I guess. Technical resistances 1.6590/00, 1.6630/35 and 1.6660/70.
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August 20 2009, 11:26am | Comments »
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So you think EUR/USD is about to break out from it’s restricted summer range? This might change your mind
Hearing that a certain Asian sovereign was a noted buyer yesterday of a one month $1.3950/1.4450 dnt structure. The same player was seen selling into the early EUR/USD rally this morning. Deep deep joy. I’m going on holiday…….for a month.
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August 20 2009, 11:05am | Comments »
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EUR/USD slips back
EUR/USD is nearly back to where it started out the day in Europe, presently at 1.4110, the earlier rally having topped out at 1.4139, aforementioned sell orders at 1.4140/60 having proved a durable barrier to accelerated upside. Next up in about 10 minutes German and euro zone ZEW economic sentiment readings, expected +45 and +43 respectively.
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August 18 2009, 11:50am | Comments »
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Cable slides further in early European trade
Cable lost ground overnight in Asia and the sell-off has continued in early European trade. The pairing is presently down at 1.6430 having closed out last week about a full cent higher. General risk sentiment has taken a hefty knock and this is underminning sterling. Also weighing is the latest Rightmove house price data, which doesn’t make encouraging reading for those looking for a sustained recovery in UK house prices. Supports for cable now at 1.6400/05 and 1.6380.
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August 17 2009, 8:51am | Comments »
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Nikkei expected to follow NY lead and open lower
Disappointing US consumer sentiment on Friday last will likely lead to a fall in the Nikkei on the open as investors worry about the stamina of the worldwide economic recovery which we’ve witnessed in recent months.
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August 17 2009, 2:40am | Comments »
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USD/JPY takes out option interest and bounces strongly from noted technical support
In a flurry of activity the 95.00 option interest was blown away with USD/JPY slumping to test noted technical support. The 94.86 level, the base of the ichimoku cloud, however provided robust support and we’ve bounced quickly back above 95.00 to 95.20 at writing.
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August 14 2009, 10:59am | Comments »
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Cable comes under heavy pressure
Cable has come under heavy pressure, presently down at 1.6515. Next technical support at 1.6500. Talk of some buy orders lined up down at 1.6500/10. Bloomberg is carrying an article about US banks and toxic assets, which will not be helping sterling, given it’s close tie up with the health of the financial sector. Apparently more than 150 publicly traded US lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5% or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival.
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August 14 2009, 10:27am | Comments »
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Talk of China selling EUR/USD
Knew it wouldn’t be long. Hearing talk China has been selling EUR/USD in the 1.4255/65 region.
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August 13 2009, 11:56am | Comments »
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EUR/USD holding up ahead of EZ growth data; sell orders, stops noted
EUR/USD is holding up well ahead of the euro zone GDP data due in about 15 mins. The market had earlier today been expecting a result in the -0.5% q/q, -5.1% y/y area. Obviously the release of better than expected French and German data will have raised expectations. Gotta think the market will now be looking for a quarter on quarter number with a plus sign infront of it. Sources report sell orders up at 1.4280/90, with buy stops gathering just above there.
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August 13 2009, 11:46am | Comments »
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French Economy Minister: French Q-2 GDP +0.3%
An early heads up from the French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde. French Q-2 GDP was surprisingly robust, coming in at +0.3% q/q, compared to a median forecast of -0.3%. EUR/USD is trading steadily around 1.4215.
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August 13 2009, 8:59am | Comments »
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BOE risks of CPI being above or below target in 2 years balanced if rates held at 0.5%, 175 bln QE
The Bank feels the risks of CPI being above or below target in 2 years balanced if rates held at 0.5% , QE at 175 bln. BOE chart shows CPI below target at around 1.4% in 2 years assuming market rate path, QE of 175 bln. More likely than not inflation will fall below 1% in Autumn triggering letter to the government. Rates to be on hold for sometime to come so it seems. This is underminning cable a little, presently at 1.6425. BOE chart shows GDP starting to grow Q-1 2010, reaching just below 3% in 2 years. Tight credit, past falls in asset prices, high public/private debt likely to hinder recovery.
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August 12 2009, 12:41pm | Comments »
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Cable triggers stops
Well didn’t take long. Cable has duly triggered stops below 1.6650 reaching a session low 1.6621 fairly quickly. I think I misjudged things a little, this looks like general sterling weakness rather than just cable pressure. From here, technical supports for cable 1.6620 and 1.6600. EUR/GBP is up at .8530 from an early .8495. Talk of sell orders up at .8550. There is some event risk looming for sterling. Wednesday sees the release of the Bank of England quarterly inflation report and the bank looks set to downgrade it’s growth forecast for this year. On the same day we’ll also have the release of June jobs data, which is hardly going to make for good reading.
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August 10 2009, 10:43am | Comments »
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EUR/GBP retains bid; sell orders noted
EUR/GBP sits at .8585, retaining it’s earlier bid-tone. As mentioned previously a large hedge fund has been a notable buyer of the cross today. Sources now report option-related sell orders lying up at .8590/00. I’d hazard a guess they’ll also be some stop loss buy orders gathering just north of .8600, although no confirmation of such as yet.
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August 7 2009, 11:39am | Comments »
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BOJ sees deflation stretching through to 2011
From Bloomberg.
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August 6 2009, 8:44pm | Comments »
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To our readers in India……
And I know there are quite a few of you. You might be interested to hear, given it’s Raksha Bandhan today, I’m banging away at the keyboard this morning wearing my splendid rakhi bracelet (sacred thread of protection) sent to me by my sister who lives in Udaipur in Rajastan.
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August 5 2009, 9:38am | Comments »
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Asian central bank seen buying EUR/USD
A source reports an Asian central bank has been spotted buying EUR/USD around current levels. We’re presently at 1.4383/88
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August 5 2009, 9:03am | Comments »