The U.S. dollar extended yesterday’s gains against the euro during today’s London and New York sessions. One opportunity to short the EUR/USD at a convergence of multiple levels of likely resistance, came together during the 30 minutes leading up to the U.S. equity market open. The dollar’s momentum increased following the release of a worse than expected October consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. The short trade delivered a profit of up to 80 pips [depending on exit strategy]. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst
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FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - October 27, 2009
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October 28 2009, 2:56am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - European Outlook October 27th 2009
Hi everyone. For this outlook I employ some very simple trend following analysis. I take a good look at the Aussie USD and Euro USD. The Euro analysis is slightly more complex in that we have hit a reasonably strong area of support and I’m cautious in my approach to trading it today. The sound quality is a little scratchy in places; however I hope you enjoy the video. Good luck!! David Pegler
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October 27 2009, 12:35am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - October 26, 2009
The U.S. dollar rebounded during today’s New York session after hitting a 14-month low earlier in the day. A short trade from the top of an intra-day channel on the EUR/USD currency pair produced between 85 to 130 pips [depending on exit strategy]. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst
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October 27 2009, 12:27am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - October 26, 2009
Here we are on the Monday right after the British Pound dove off a steep cliff. In addition, London’s time changed so that London open does not correspond with the normal London open for US traders, that goes back to normal Sunday when US times change as well. After such a massive move, we found ourselves in a bit of a range, playing ping pong between support and resistance throughout the first trading day of the week. Likely the best approach for extracting pips during this London session was going to be taking shots right off the tops and bottoms of these definable ranges using shorter term time frame clues ‘Around’ these zones, such as higher low’s or lower high’s. In this video I highlight one such trade plan that we executed in the room together involving the GBP/JPY. We identified a good deal of overlapping resistance around the 150.00 area on multiple time frames, then simply planned a low risk high reward short trade plan if and only IF we got a lower high to work with off this area, using a short term chart to zoom in. Sure enough it presented itself on a 2minute chart, a Lower High, with just 15 pips or so risk (very low risk on GBP/JPY), and a reward likely of 60-70 pips it was too hard to resist. As it were this trade dropped to around 40ish pip profit before pulling back near to entry for one final chance to get in or reload it, then fell for the remainder of the range/scalp trade right to our rising trend line. Hey take what you can get, we were ‘Scraping’ for our pips today, so a 60 pip trade was considered a Monster! =). Hopefully NY will kick it up a notch. FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
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October 26 2009, 1:41pm | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - October 23, 2009
London started off kind of slow today and we bounced around a bit looking for strength versus weakness. Most of us were in some sort of a British Pound long from late in the pre-London session, but we were starting to see some clues of exhaustion, time to take some profit, or protect pips. Then we took notice of the GBP/JPY pair particularly starting to show short term MACD divergence pretty much exactly when it was hitting it’s Daily 200ema, previous swing high on the Daily chart, as well as the Weekly M4 reversal pivot point. While none of us wanted to pick a top, that divergence at that resistance was such a clue of a possible impending short trade plan, that any Lower High development on this short term chart was reason enough to give the short a shot with a higher high stop, 20 pips risk or so, targeting about a 40-50 pip move before we reached support again, and we also had British GDP approaching in a half hour or so. The EUR/GBP was also showing a double bottom at 90 cents, as even cable had a short term lower high. This was starting to smell of GBP sell off just before news. Just before the news came out we were 55 pips or so in profit on the GBP/JPY short, definitely protect break even at minimum as news could evaporate all of it, or even take some partial profit. Well the GDP came out negative and Whammo, British Pound ‘Everything’ plummeted 200 pips in no time at all. So what started out as a conservative lower high off resistance trade attempt, turned into a 300 pip trade by the end, or much more if you were in all the GBP pairs. Simply an amazing way to finish a fantastic week, and a reminder to all of us why you let profits run once you have break even or MAP (minimal acceptable performance 15-20 pips) locked in. You never know which trade will be the monster like this. Have a great weekend folks! FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
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October 23 2009, 4:19pm | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - October 22, 2009
A summary of today’s New York session? Let’s put it this way: The EUR/USD currency pair rose a net 15 pips over the course of four hours. Although profitable trades were attainable, they were also short-lived. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst
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October 22 2009, 11:51pm | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - October 22, 2009
Yesterday we enjoyed quite a Piptopia on the British Pound breakout of a Daily trendline to the upside. Sure enough, today was our opportunity in London to short it back down to the trendline retest. Pre-London gave us our first lower high to work with on the GBP/USD, and the 2hr EUR/GBP started developing a higher low to give us confidence in the move. The rest of the London session was spent reloading shorts at every Fibonacci pullback possible and turning a 100 or so pip move into a 250 pip play due to exponential reloads, I just love days like this, purely technical. Bad Retail Sales for Britain helped finish the job and there we were, right on our target zone to take profit, could not script it better really. FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
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October 22 2009, 5:49pm | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - European Outlook October 22nd 2009
Hi everyone. This is not my typical intraday market look, in this video I respond to an email forwarded to me and take a look at some longer term analysis for the Pound. I take a detailed look at some key Euro Pound price action and try to predict the future for Cable over the next 90 days. In addition to this longer term analysis I also build a few basic intraday plans for Cable and Euro Yen. Enjoy and good luck today!! David Pegler
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October 22 2009, 2:53am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - October 21, 2009
The Daily trendline on the GBP/USD was under pressure again today, starting back in late Asia into the pre-London session. Then again we found ourselves with some proper Fibonacci pullback entries into the London session, onward past the now broken daily trend line for new recent high’s. In this video I show how we built a couple GBP long trade plans during our London session, as well as covering the more difficult Fib entry at 4:30am, which although technically perfect, was a difficult entry to take since we had GBP news being release Exactly when we are at this point. Yet even after this tough entry, we did indeed get one more pullback opportunity to reload this GBP/USD long, or whichever GBP pair of your choosing. Wonderful pip total day indeed longing the British Pound Sterling! FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
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October 21 2009, 6:20pm | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - October 20, 2009
The U.S. dollar had been mostly range-bound through today’s Asian and London sessions. At the U.S. equity market open, the major stock indexes showed red, and with it came USD strength. The EUR/USD currency pair offered a classic second chance entry after a range breakout move. A 60-pip profit was the reward for traders who let that trade run to the London close, while the cable produced a move roughly double that size. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst
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October 21 2009, 3:27am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - European Outlook October 21st 2009
Hi everyone. Looking at the charts today I found a fairly mixed market and I’m hard pressed to put forward a direct market bias, particularly for the USD. In light of this I take a look at the Euro Pound for relative strength clues and then breakdown the Euro USD into bite size pieces and outline some key technical levels. This should give you the tools you need moving forward through the European session today. Good luck!! David Pegler
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October 21 2009, 1:56am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - October 20, 2009
Throughout pre-London we had established a bit of a range on the majors early one, with some volatility showing up on the GBP/USD about an hour before London open. Even though the GBP/USD was starting to show some short term strength, the combination of a Daily trend line touch, along with a closed Bollinger Band on both the 4hour and 1hour charts indicated implied volatility for further upside was limited, at least on the near term. Armed with this information we started building trade plans around a lower high scenario. While the initial entry indeed take place prior to London open, there were a few more opportunities throughout early London to hop into this trade, including one exactly as London opened. In this video I walk you through these trade plans, that although were fairly high quality entries, in the long run ended up lacking follow through. Essentially successful trades in that they certainly moved far enough for us to protect very nice pips, but failed miserably reaching our objective. In the end, as London lunch arrived we had proven to stay in a fairly isolated range all night, with a few exceptions here and there. A rather tough night to make a lot of pips unless you were aggressive at protecting/scaling out your pips, which we did at every corner. Sometimes you have to scrape and claw to make your 120 pip night out of 30 here and 30 there. FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
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October 20 2009, 4:13pm | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - European Outlook October 20th 2009
Hey everyone, for this look at the European market I concentrate on the USD/Yen and Pound Yen. Both pairs have reached some fairly critical technical levels and I draw up a trade plan for both a bullish and bearish scenario. Very basic analysis employed, support and resistance and multiple time frame use. Good luck!! David Pegler
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October 20 2009, 1:35am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - October 19, 2009
After a brief recovery during the early portion of today’s Asian session, the U.S. dollar was subject to selling pressure from London open to London close. A long trade on the EUR/USD currency pair yielded between 40 to 60 pips [depending on exit strategy] during the New York session. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst
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October 20 2009, 1:24am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - October 19, 2009
During today’s pre-London session and then into the first hour of the London open, we were dealing with some short term British Pound weakness and Japanese Yen strength, a quality setup for a GBP/JPY short, that was very easy to plan for trade entries and targets prior to pre-London beginning. In this video I show why I looked for these setups to begin with, and how both I went about initial entries prior to the London session I coach, along with some reloads we took together in the London session with the class. The last of which ended up being stopped out break even, but over all a nice Monday starting over 100 pips, nothing wrong with that. I have not made a video in a couple weeks, I apologize for that, just been trading extended hours lately, this video shows that as I rambled on a bit. Will tighten things up in the video’s to come, see you all tomorrow. FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens
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October 19 2009, 3:36pm | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - European Outlook October 16th 2009
Hi everyone, for today’s presentation I build on yesterday’s Pound related analysis. I take a look at the Pound USD and Pound Yen. I have put together a few conservative trade plans. I am looking for some pullbacks to dynamic support on a daily and 4 hr level. Have a safe weekend, and I hope you enjoy the video. David Pegler
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October 16 2009, 4:37am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - October 15, 2009
The headline figure from the October Empire State Manufacturing Survey destroyed the consensus forecast, adding to the Japanese yen’s downward momentum. Following the news release, a scalp trade on the EUR/JPY currency pair yielded at least 55 pips [depending on exit strategy]. An hour after the New York open, the U.S. dollar resumed its recent soft tone, lifting the EUR/USD pair by some 90 pips. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst
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October 16 2009, 3:05am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - European Outlook October 15th 2009
Hi Everyone, I return to some old themes today and concentrate on the Euro Pound cross for relative strength clues moving forward. The Euro Pound is starting to look like a retracement phase is at hand and that implies some Pound relative strength, not surprising given the key resistance we have found for the Euro USD. I hope you enjoy the video and good luck!! David Pegler
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October 15 2009, 3:11am | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - October 14, 2009
Sterling was the feature currency during today’s New York session. Movement on the pound pairs was led by a EUR/GBP bounce at key support, then further fueled by dovish comments from BOE’s Fisher. In contrast, when the dust settled following today’s releases of JP Morgan earnings and U.S. retail sales, traders found that virtually nothing had changed for the U.S. dollar. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst
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October 14 2009, 11:30pm | Comments »
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FOREX VIDEO - European Outlook October 14th 2009
Hi everyone, for this European outlook I take a look at a small basket of potential Yen related trades. I spend the majority of my analysis time focusing on the USD/JPY as a proxy for all the Yen’s. In addition I analyze the Pound and Aussie Yen. Simple analysis, lots of price action and EMA use today. Good luck!! David Pegler
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October 14 2009, 3:34am | Comments »