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• FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook September 1st 2009

  Hi everyone, happy to be back after the London holiday. For this outlook video I analyze the Euro Pound extensively not necessarily to trade it but to use this pair as a strong proxy for Pound related relative strength. Nothing particularly complicated, simply using Euro Pound technical’s to trade Cable. Good luck and I hope you enjoy the video. David Pegler

  

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  September 1 2009, 3:44am | Comments »

• Volatility Analysis: AUD/USD

  [Click on the graph above for a larger version] One of your most important indicators for trading the Forex market is the clock. Knowing how to trade — using technical and fundamental analysis, managing risk, adopting a trader’s mindset — is critical, but your effectiveness as a trader is limited until you know when to trade. The above graph [click on the graph to view a larger version] is a visual answer to the question, “When does the AUD/USD tend to move?” The small black squares on the graph represent the average range (high minus low) for the 15-minute candle which opens at the time of day designated by the scale at the bottom of the graph. The gray bars, which stretch above and below the black squares, represent what statisticians refer to as the 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the range for candles at that time of day. For an example of how to interpret those gray bars, look to the one labeled “Eastern European Open”. The average range of the 15-minute candle which opens at 06:00 GMT, based on AUD/USD price data from June 15 through August 14, has been about 16 pips. Recent data suggests the range of that candle has been statistically different from the average range (12 pips) of the previous 15-minute candle, but not statistically different from the average range (16 pips) of the next 15-minute candle. In simpler terms, the AUD/USD has recently seen a significant surge in volatility during the hour beginning at 06:00 GMT, as compared to the volatility during the prior 4 hours. This graph does not in any way predict the direction that the AUD/USD moves at given time. It only shows how big the 15-minute candles have tended to be at different times in the day. Times shown at the bottom of the graph are GMT. To convert GMT to your local time, go here. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

  

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  September 1 2009, 2:24am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - August 28, 2009

  Today the EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF 2hr macd divergence we have seen for over a week finally was followed up by some lower highs on the EUR/GBP and higher lows on GBP/CHF. Hinting Strongly at minimum of a 21 ema pullback on these long term charts was about to occur. This meant essentially we had technical reasoning to go Long British Pound Sterling against all comers all night long at any support possible until either resistance was hit, or failure in the form of 1-2-3 pattern’s etc. There were high quality long entries on GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, and short on EUR/GBP well into the pre-London session. These parts all offered again high quality pullbacks as the London market opened around 8am London time. In this video I focus on just one of these pairings, the GBP/JPY. I show in detail the divergence we spoke of that led us to believe Sterling strength all night would be the theme, along with complete details on how we put together a ‘Reload’ of the GBP/JPY long off a double bottom 61/8% Fibonacci and other overlapping support. I also discuss how we planned our profit takes, and determine where this trade might go. Excellent night overall, nice GBP basket trades that really cleaned up tonight, could not ask for a better way to end the week. FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens

  

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  August 28 2009, 3:34pm | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - August 27, 2009

  The US dollar had attempted, but failed, to make new gains against multiple currencies for a full round-the-clock cycle. During the final hour of European trading, the USD bulls seemed to give up, and the bears stepped in. Currency correlation, identification of basic support and resistance, and a Fibonacci study contributed to creation of a trade plan to go long on the GBP/USD currency pair. Those traders who took the shot, then closed the trade at the next significant level of resistance, earned a 60-pip profit at today’s London close. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

  

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  August 28 2009, 2:43am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 28th 2009

  Hey Everyone. Tough London trading prevails however we are trading in the context of some longer term direction especially on the Pound related pairs. In this presentation I draw up a conservative trade plan for Pound Yen and Cable. Lots of Fibonacci work today as well as longer term chart use for an intraday bias. Good luck and have a safe weekend. David Pegler

  

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  August 28 2009, 1:18am | Comments »

• Volatility Analysis: GBP/JPY

  [Click on the graph above for a larger version] One of your most important indicators for trading the Forex market is the clock. Knowing how to trade — using technical and fundamental analysis, managing risk, adopting a trader’s mindset — is critical, but your effectiveness as a trader is limited until you know when to trade. The above graph [click on the graph to view a larger version] is a visual answer to the question, “When does the GBP/JPY tend to move?” The small black squares on the graph represent the average range (high minus low) for the 15-minute candle which opens at the time of day designated by the scale at the bottom of the graph. The gray bars, which stretch above and below the black squares, represent what statisticians refer to as the 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the range for candles at that time of day. For an example of how to interpret those gray bars, look to the one labeled “U.S. equity market open 9:30am ET.” The average range of the 15-minute candle which opens at 13:30 GMT, based on GBP/JPY price data from June 15 through August 14, has been about 43 pips. Recent data suggests the range of that candle has been statistically different from the average range (32 pips) of the previous 15-minute candle, but not statistically different from the average range (42 pips) of the next 15-minute candle. In simpler terms, the GBP/JPY has recently seen a significant surge in volatility during the 15 minutes after the U.S. equity market open at 13:30 GMT, as compared to the volatility during the prior 15 minutes. This graph does not in any way predict the direction that the GBP/JPY moves at given time. It only shows how big the 15-minute candles have tended to be at different times in the day. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

  

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  August 27 2009, 12:03am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 26th 2009

  Hey everyone. Today’s video is a busy one to say the least, I conduct analysis and build trade plans for 4 currency pairs. Cable, Pound Yen, Pound Swiss and Euro USD. You going to need to bring your “A” game today as it’s a support and resistance and relative strength buffet. Today the Euro Pound cross is going to be a key proxy for the whole currency market I feel, even as far as the USD is concerned. Good luck and I hope you enjoy the video. David Pegler

  

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  August 26 2009, 2:01am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - London Session Review - August 25, 2009

  As the pre-London session ended today, and we ere taking profit on our GBP/USD and GBP/JPY shorts at support, our attention quickly turned to the London Open. Here we are yet again, at support on these two pairs Right as the London market opens. I prefer to not counter trend, but when you find yourself at support across the board at a major market open, it’s hard not to look for clues of buying off this support, I mean who wants to short at support right? In this video I zoom into the GBP/USD and cover as clear as I can the how’s and why’s of this counter trend Long trade plan. It became a simple matter of awaiting a higher high, then locking in break even, done deal, no risk trade then. After that we moved on about our business on other trade idea’s while the pair slowly inched it’s way to our target over the next few hours. Eventually we nailed our target for a 60′ish pip counter trend trade, and even found reasons to short at the beginning of London lunch. No real major news releases tonight led to a very predictable onslaught of ‘Technical’ trading, the money truly was made in the waiting tonight, on this trade shown as well as several others. FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens

  

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  August 25 2009, 4:04pm | Comments »

• Volatility Analysis: GBP/USD

  [Click on the graph above for a larger version] One of your most important indicators for trading the Forex market is the clock. Knowing how to trade — using technical and fundamental analysis, managing risk, adopting a trader’s mindset — is critical, but your effectiveness as a trader is limited until you know when to trade. The above graph [click on the graph to view a larger version] is a visual answer to the question, “When does the GBP/USD tend to move?” The small black squares on the graph represent the average range (high minus low) for the 15-minute candle which opens at the time of day designated by the scale at the bottom of the graph. The gray bars, which stretch above and below the black squares, represent what statisticians refer to as the 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the range for candles at that time of day. For an example of how to interpret those gray bars, look to the one labeled “8:30am ET U.S. news.” The average range of the 15-minute candle which opens at 12:30 GMT, based on GBP/USD price data from June 15 through August 14, has been about 32 pips. Recent data suggests the range of that candle has been statistically different from the average range (24 pips) of the previous 15-minute candle, but not statistically different from the average range (28 pips) of the next 15-minute candle. In simpler terms, the GBP/USD has recently seen a significant increase in volatility during the 15 minutes after 12:30 GMT, as compared to the volatility during the prior 15 minutes. This graph does not in any way predict the direction that the GBP/USD moves at given time. It only shows how big the 15-minute candles have tended to be at different times in the day. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst Related post: GBP/USD volatility by time of day in 1Q09

  

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  August 25 2009, 2:09am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 25th 2009

  Hey everyone, today is a unique video in that I’m posting it significantly earlier than I typically do, in addition to my normal analysis I also respond to an email question regarding my daily trading routine and approach. Perhaps this is of some interest to you. Along with this discussion I outline a conservative Cable and Pound Yen trade plan, building on yesterday’s analysis. Good luck and please leave me some feedback. David Pegler

  

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  August 25 2009, 12:45am | Comments »

• Volatility Analysis: EUR/JPY

  [Click on the graph above for a larger version] One of your most important indicators for trading the Forex market is the clock. Knowing how to trade — using technical and fundamental analysis, managing risk, adopting a trader’s mindset — is critical, but your effectiveness as a trader is limited until you know when to trade. The above graph [click on the graph to view a larger version] is a visual answer to the question, “When does the EUR/JPY tend to move?” The small black squares on the graph represent the average range (high minus low) for the 15-minute candle which opens at the time of day designated by the scale at the bottom of the graph. The gray bars, which stretch above and below the black squares, represent what statisticians refer to as the 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the range for candles at that time of day. For an example of how to interpret those gray bars, look to the one labeled “U.S. equity market open.” The average range of the 15-minute candle which opens at 13:30 GMT, based on EUR/JPY price data from June 15 through August 14, has been about 32 pips. Recent data suggests the range of that candle has been statistically different from the average range (24 pips) of the previous 15-minute candle, but not statistically different from the average range (31 pips) of the next 15-minute candle. In simpler terms, the EUR/JPY has recently seen a significant surge in volatility during the 15 minutes after the U.S. equity market open at 13:30 GMT, as compared to the volatility during the prior 15 minutes. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst Related post: EUR/JPY volatility by time of day in 1Q09

  

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  August 24 2009, 3:10am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 24th 2009

  Hi everyone, hope you had a restful weekend. I’m looking forward to a good trading week ahead. For this outlook video, I build on last week’s Pound related analysis with a comprehensive look at Cable and the Pound Yen cross. Although there has been plenty of intraday volatility we have not really seen any real prevailing longer term direction for some time, I expect a change in that theme. Good luck and enjoy the video. David Pegler

  

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  August 24 2009, 1:56am | Comments »

• Volatility Analysis: EUR/USD

  [Click on the graph above for a larger version] One of your most important indicators for trading the Forex market is the clock. Knowing how to trade — using technical and fundamental analysis, managing risk, adopting a trader’s mindset — is critical, but your effectiveness as a trader is limited until you know when to trade. The above graph [click on the graph to view a larger version] is a visual answer to the question, “When does the EUR/USD tend to move?” The small black squares on the graph represent the average range (high minus low) for the 15-minute candle which opens at the time of day designated by the scale at the bottom of the graph. The gray bars, which stretch above and below the black squares, represent what statisticians refer to as the 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the range for candles at that time of day. For an example of how to interpret those gray bars, look to the one labeled “London Open.” The average range of the 15-minute candle which opens at 06:45 GMT, based on EUR/USD price data from June 15 through August 14, was about 21 pips. Recent data suggests the range of that candle is statistically different from the average range (17 pips) of the previous 15-minute candle, but not statistically different from the average range (20 pips) of the next 15-minute candle. In simpler terms, the EUR/USD has recently seen a significant surge in volatility between 06:00 to 07:15 GMT, as compared to the volatility during the five previous hours. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst Related post: EUR/USD volatility by time of day

  

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  August 22 2009, 8:32pm | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 21st 2009

  Hi everyone. Unfortunately not much new information has entered the market since we last spoke; as a result these volatile but rangy market conditions prevail. For today’s outlook I highlight a few key breakout levels for Cable, Euro and Pound Yen. Simply taking 4 hr and daily charts into account and building a trade plan around some important support and resistance. Good luck. David Pegler

  

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  August 21 2009, 1:34am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - August 20, 2009

  Capital preservation ruled during today’s New York session. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

  

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  August 21 2009, 1:23am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 20th 2009

  Hi everyone, until we break out of the some of these longer term ranges, this choppy, session by session trading will prevail. This in mind all that we have at our disposal is basic price action on smaller time frames and old school support and resistance. In this video I highlight the Pound USD and Euro Yen cross. I have identified the longer term ranges and the short term trading possibilities. Good luck and happy trading. David Pegler

  

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  August 20 2009, 2:19am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - August 18, 2009

  A report released during today’s London session suggested that prices in the U.K. remained broadly flat in July. In the latest spirit of “less bad is the new good,” the British pound firmed up against multiple currencies. A rather unsurprising US housing starts print sparked a brief rally in the US dollar, only to set the stage for pound bulls to pounce. Those traders who bought the dip in the GBP/USD currency pair during the minutes leading up to the US equity market open, then closed the trade at the hourly 200 ema, realized a profit of roughly 100 pips. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

  

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  August 19 2009, 2:11am | Comments »

• Can Hurricanes Create Trade Opportunties?

  Click To Watch The FOREX TV Interview: http://www.forextv.com/Forex/Video/Video.jsp?channel=41,276,1241,249,1314,1418,1423,1424,1429,1445&movieid=49423   Get your FX Bootcamp Videos Faster: http://www.youtube.com/fxbootcamp http://www.facebook.com/fxbootcamp http://www.twitter.com/fxbootcamp http://fxbootcamp.fxstreet.com  

  

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  August 18 2009, 9:10am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - Pre London Outlook August 18th 2009

  Hi everyone. Finally we have a trending market it’s been a long time in the making and a welcome sight. For this presentation I take a look at the Pound USD and Euro USD. The simplest of the simple today, nothing more than a trend following trade plan for both currency pairs. I also spend some time discussing overall profit targets for this move. Good luck and enjoy the video. David Pegler

  

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  August 18 2009, 1:51am | Comments »

• FOREX VIDEO - New York Session Review - August 17, 2009

  Some days, the best plan is to keep your powder dry. After broad risk aversion in currency and futures markets during the Asian and London sessions, consolidation was the theme for the major pairs during today’s New York session. Curt Wehrley FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

  

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  August 18 2009, 1:41am | Comments »

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