Latest from AEP at The Telegraph.
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The crucifixion of Latvia
June 14 2009, 10:48pm | Comments »
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Treasury yields lower ahead of auction
Despite a 30-year Treasury auction (results due at the top of the hour), US yields are slightly lower on the day. 10-year notes, the market benchmark, are yielding 3.93%, down from 4.00% after upbeat retail sales and jobless claims reports. Usually rates rise ahead of auctions as primary dealers push yields up and prices down so they can buy the auction more cheaply. Last months 30-year sale did not go well so markets will be especially watchful for signs that demand for long government debt continues to wane. Another poor auction could take the steam out of equities, as yesterday 10-year note sale did.
June 11 2009, 7:37pm | Comments »
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US Treasury Yields in a Tug of War
From http://www.bloomberg.com today, June 9 “The Wall Street firms that trade directly with the Federal Reserve say speculators betting that interest...
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June 9 2009, 5:14pm | Comments »
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US Treasury confirms bank TARP repayment of $68bln
The US Treasury has confirmed overnight talk that US banks are starting to repay some of the TARP bail-out funds. It really was a classic case of buy the rumour sell the fact in Eur/Usd as we drop below 1.4000. Good news though with the Trasury saying that they have received repayments from Banks and other institutions totalling $70 bln so far and has received $4.5 bln in dividend payments.
June 9 2009, 4:52pm | Comments »
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Obviously the model is still out of form!
Apologies for the slight break in transmission, suffered some minor technical difficulties. Not much has luckily happened in the interim although the s/t model signal isn’t looking too good with EUR/JPY drifting lower, currently at 136.85. Maybe we should use them as a reverse indicator and put a bid in where their stop-loss is. Harsh but possibly fair.
June 9 2009, 4:16am | Comments »
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New York forex wrap; Dollar loses portion of gains
Turning point for global economy Sept/Oct this year: IMF’s Strauss-Kahn German bank West LB in spotlight; Dow Jones reports nearly failed over weekend Conference Board’s employment trends survey rises to 89.9 from 89.7; first rise in 16 mos World Bank head bullish on China; welcome moves to Yuan flexibility Fed’s Tarullo: Economy near bottom; recovery to be “painfully slow” Obama speeding stimulus spending IMF: Eurozone bank clean ups lacking; ECB should look at refi cut ECB’s Weber: Must quickly reverse accommodation as economy recovers ECB’s Stark echoes Weber; Exit strategy needed. Rates appropriate EU’s Almunia: Must consolidate budgets once growth returns US rates continue to rise in US; 2 year note reaches 1.42%, 10-year 3.90% US equities recover most losses, close down 0.1%
The dollar lost some of its overnight gains in US trade, as the pound rebounded sharply in afternoon trade. PM Brown survived his latest leadership challenge and emerged bruised but still in power today. That was not necessarily a surprise, so I am pinning the sterling recovery on the odds of a sale of BGI by Barclays to a US buyer. Cable broke above 1.6000 at midday and reached the 1.6100 level late in the session. Short-covering was the driving factor, as near as I could discern. EUR/USD rose as well, but the pace was about half that of the pound. Heavy EUR/USD offers between 1.3900 and 1.3925 were absorbed along the way but follow-through has been limited. Large speculative longs continue to liquidate positions on strength, traders relay.Weber and Stark, the German enforcers at the ECB took to the microphones to talk exit strategy, setting the stage for the ECB to withdraw their excess liquidity as (if?) the economy improves. USD/JPY dipped to 98.20 where it found support from the downtrend broken on Friday, now at the 98.20 level. That breakout was re-test and held and USD/JPY rose to 98.50 late as US yields continued to surge. Commodity currencies recovered some of their recent lost ground, helped in part by comments from the World bank’s Zoellick. He sees China’s rebound continuing. AUD retook the 0.7900 level on short-covering during PM trade.
June 8 2009, 11:17pm | Comments »
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