The USD has seen some across the board weakness during Asian trade, EUR/USD presently up at 1.4050 compared to a North American close Wednesday around 1.3985, while cable is up at 1.6420 from around 1.6350. The USD is being underminned by worries major emerging countries (BRICs) may be about to aggressively diversify out of the USD and US assets. No lesser judges than our own Jamie Coleman and Goldmans feel these worries are overblown. Elsewhere risk appetite remains healthy, helping support likes of sterling, euro, aussie and canadian dollar. The Nikkei poked it’s head over 10,000 overnight, the first time since last October. Sentiment will have been bolstered by the release of Australian May employment data which showed a much lower decline in the number of jobless than expected, a mere -1,700 s.a compared to a median forecast of -30,000. The unemployment rate came in at 5.7%, as expected. Japan’s Q-1 GDP was revised up, to -3.8% q/q and -14.2% annualised from initial -4.0% , -15% respectively, which would also have helped a little. Elsewhere, China’s Jan-May urban fixed asset investment was up 32.9% from a year earlier, better than the median forecast of 31%. There are also expectations that tomorrow’s release of Chinese industrial output is going to see a nice pop.
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USD weaker across the board in Asian trade
June 11 2009, 8:11am | Comments »
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USD remains weak in Asian trade
A fairly quiet Asian trading session, with the USD retaining it’s weaker feel. EUR/USD is up at 1.4090 compared to a North American close Tuesday around 1.4060. The USD is being underminned by a growing realisation that the US will not infact be hiking rates anytime soon and by decent risk appetite. Asian stockmarkets made nice gains overnight. Sentiment will have been underpinned by fact Australian June consumer confidence jumped most in 22 years. Interesting piece by Sam overnight, highlighting story in Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao Daily. The paper reports that Chinese May industrial output will show 8.9% y/y growth, appreciably better than median forecast of 7.6% (data due Friday.) If true, you’d certainly think that would give risk appetite a further boost.
June 10 2009, 8:05am | Comments »
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JPY, USD firmer in Asian trade
The JPY and USD have firmed in overnight Asian trade, with risk aversion slightly heightened, and with Asian stocks posting losses. EUR/USD is down at 1.3865 from a North American close Monday around 1.3900, while EUR/JPY is down at 136.10 from around 136.95. Asian market seems to have picked up on comments made by the IMF yesterday, that lack of a co-0rdinated and aggressive clean up plan for euro zone banks could hamper economic recovery in the 16 countries that share the euro. The Congressional Oversight panel meanwhile says that bank stress tests should be repeated if the US unemployment rate rises beyond levels assumed by regulators in the recent round of examination. The panel also says that the stress tests should also be repeated periodically as long as banks continue to hold “appreciable amounts” of toxic assets. I just noticed some rather disconcerting comments made recently by Robert J Shiller (he of home-price indexes fame.) The Finance professor at Yale says US house prices are in the midst of a decline that may last for years. Ughh. S&P have released a report entitled “Asia-Pacific Sovereign Report Card; Amid Encouraging Signs, A Bumpy Road Lies Ahead.” The report says the worst of the economic dislocation in Asia Pacific appears to be over, if recent indicators are to be beleived, but fiscal deterioration resulting from stimulus and banking sector support measures will continue to put pressure on a number of sovereign ratings in the medium-term.
June 9 2009, 8:12am | Comments »
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