July 2011 performance review for Danica-9am algorithm

Source: forexautomaton.com

July 2011 was the seventh month of the second year of Danica's live operation. The system continued on auto-pilot without parameter changes. The system continued to surprise with the stable, significant anti-correlation between its forecasts and the reality for daily close, while doing a good job making forecasts positively correlated with reality for the daily extremes (in all cases, logarithmic returns are analyzed). The largest contributors to the negative performance for daily close were AUD/JPY and AUD/USD. The best performing pair was EUR/CHF. This system performance review consists of a summary section reporting the figures of merit for the forecasting quality, followed by 14 subsections, dedicated to the individual exchange rates tracked by the system. Those contain the usual green-yellow-blue-red color-coded charts of the performance, such as shown below, for each currency pair. Fig. 0: EUR/CHF bar chart for July 2011, color-coded to indicate the degree of success in the forecast for close. Yellow and green bars have been predicted successfully as bearish and bullish respectively; blue and read are unsuccessful bearish and bullish predictions, respectively. The system successfully calls the local top (by daily close) in the last week of July trading.   For comparison with the previous month, you may want to take a look at the June 2011 performance review.


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