August 2011 performance review for Danica

Source: forexautomaton.com

August 2011 was the eighth month of the second year of Danica's live operation. The system continued on auto-pilot without parameter changes. The market average of the correlation coefficient between its forecasts and the reality for daily close came out negative, but the result is strongly dominated by a single market, EUR/USD, which was range-bound but at the same time volatile. The system kept doing a good job making forecasts positively correlated with reality for the daily extremes (in all cases, logarithmic returns are analysed). The best performing pair was EUR/AUD. This system performance review consists of a summary section reporting the figures of merit for the forecasting quality, followed by 14 subsections, dedicated to the individual exchange rates tracked by the system. Those contain the usual green-yellow-blue-red color-coded charts of the performance, such as shown below, for each currency pair. Fig. 0: USD/JPY bar chart for August 2011, color-coded to indicate the degree of success in the forecast for close. Yellow and green bars have been predicted successfully as bearish and bullish respectively; blue and read are unsuccessful bearish and bullish predictions, respectively. Several successful alternations of green and yellow indicating successful switches in the direction of the trade, are seen in the chart.   For comparison with the previous month, you may want to take a look at the July 2011 performance review.


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