September 2011 performance review for Danica

Source: forexautomaton.com

September 2011, the ninth month of the second year of Danica's live operation, will be remembered for the CHF intervention and the announcement of the so-called Operation Twist in the US. The system continued on auto-pilot without parameter changes. The market average of the correlation coefficient between its forecasts and the reality for daily close came out slightly positive, despite the strong negative contribution from USD/CHF, one of the pairs that suffered from the Swiss intervention. The system kept doing a good job making forecasts positively correlated with reality for the daily extremes (in all cases, logarithmic returns are analysed). This system performance review consists of a summary section reporting the figures of merit for the forecasting quality, followed by 14 subsections, dedicated to the individual exchange rates tracked by the system. Those contain the usual green-yellow-blue-red color-coded charts of the performance, such as shown below, for each currency pair. Fig. 0: EUR/JPY bar chart for September 2011, color-coded to indicate the degree of success in the forecast for close. Yellow and green bars have been predicted successfully as bearish and bullish respectively; blue and read are unsuccessful bearish and bullish predictions, respectively. Several successful alternations of green and yellow indicating successful switches in the direction of the trade, not prompted by losses, are seen in the chart.   For comparison with the previous month, you may want to take a look at the August 2011 performance review.


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