By GCI Financial - In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8293...
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Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
July 30 2009, 11:34pm | Comments »
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New York forex wrap-up; Wednesday’s losses largely retraced
US weekly jobless claims rise 25,00 to 584,000; continuing claims fall 50,000. Seasonal distortions largely over Spanish terrorist group ETA blamed for car-bombings which kill two IMF says EUR overvalued by up to 15%, ECB should cut rates; Europe must clean up banking sector Bank of England completes GBP 125 Gilt buying program; to review at August MPC meeting US auctions $28 bln in 7-year notes, best sale of the week Canadian PM Harper: Economic recovery fragile S&P 500 rises 1.1% but slumps about 1% from highs in last 30 minutes of trade. US 10 year notes fall 9 bp in yield to 3.63% after 7-yr auction.
Most aspects of the reflation trade reversed yesterday’s losses as China soothed fragile nerves overnight, saying they will maintain an easy monetary policy. Upbeat earnings reports in the US and a fairly robust jobless claims report (claims held below 600,000 as seasonal distortions waned) combined with the Chinese news to light a fire under stocks and commodities. Bond yields rose as well, early in the session, helping underpin USD/JPY and JPY crosses. USD/JPY exploded through 95.50 and ran as high as 95.88 before stalling. Investment flows into US assets from Japan plus a rise in risk appetites were the near-term catalysts. Options-players were caught flat-footed on the move higher and had to rush into hedge, traders said. A well-received 7-year note auction took the steam of of the USD/JPY rally as bond yields fell amid a rally in bond prices.USD/JPY slumped back to the 95.40s late in the session as the lower yields and some profit-taking on Wall St prompted dealers to mark prices lower. EUR/USD was whipsawed during the US morning by a proverbial “tape bomb”. Prices were rebounding within the overnight range, trading in the low 1.4070s as Oil and stocks soared. A report from the IMF saying that the EUR is up to 15% overvalued and that the ECB has room to cut rates and should do so soon knocked the single currency down over a half a cent. We fell as low as 1.4015 before eventually retracing essentially the days range as the “risk” and the low odds for a further ECB rate cut was factored in by the market. New York traded 1.4015/1.4088. GBP/USD was quite firm today, seeing strong buying against the JPY for much of the day. Japanese investment trusts were believed to be putting fresh cash to work. 1.6460/1.6523 was the NY range. Firm commodities and firm stocks (for 7/8ths of the session) helped support the commodity currencies, lifting them from yesterday’s lows. USD/CAD slumped back to the 1.0810 area while AUD/USD reached 82.88 before easing along with stocks late in the session.
July 30 2009, 11:02pm | Comments »
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July 30 2009, 11:02pm | Comments »
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USD/JPY in retrenchment mode
The reflation trade is firing on all cylinders but one this afternoon and the one cylinder which is missing, US yields are dipping, is having a negative impact on USD/JPY and the JPY crosses. Prices dipped back to the 95.50 while GBP/JPY has slumped to 157.50. USD/JPY finds support at the 95.35/40 level on dips while GBP/JPY support comes in at 157.42. The US equity market is holding onto virtually all its gains heading into the close, suggesting one more upside push to singe the last of the bears before the day is over. The 1000 mark in the S&P is a makeable milestone before we wrap up today. We stand now at 992.60.
July 30 2009, 10:29pm | Comments »
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Sloooww afternoon for EUR/USD
EUR/USD is in the upper reaches of a quiet 1.4070/85 range as the afternoon grinds on. Rebounding oil prices, 2% intraday rallies in stocks and easier US interest rates are helping support the single currency. USD/JPY is easing, now in the low 95.60s. Again, softer US rates are the culprit. The benchmark US 10-year note is 9 bp lower in the wake of the well-received 7-year note auction. Don’t say you weren’t warned! Stops from intraday players are eyed in the 95.35 area, traders report, with bids ahead of them in the 95.40/50 region.
July 30 2009, 9:32pm | Comments »
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WORLD FOREX: Dollar Shaken In Knee-Jerk Response To Tsy Auction
By Riva Froymovich NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar suffered knee-jerk losses against the euro and yen after the results of a closely watched Treasury ...
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July 30 2009, 9:19pm | Comments »
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Canada’s Harper: Recovery still fragile
Canadian Prime Minister Harper says that the “so-called” economic recovery is still fragile. He asks opposition members to focus on the economy and not on the possibility of elections should they decide to bring the government down. Harper bought himself some time a month or so ago, politically, working out a deal with the minority, but there are still differences over unemployment benefits to be worked out. USD/CAD holds in the lower end of its range, now at 1.0820. A full retracement of yesterday’s oil losses has stoked risk appetites, along with a rise in equity indexes.
July 30 2009, 9:12pm | Comments »
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First look at Q2 GDP the Friday focus
Tomorrow we get our first look at US GDP data for the second quarter of this year. Like any advance reading of GDP, it is subject to major revision, so take the data with a large pinch of salt. First quarter GDP was revised from about -6.5% in its first release to -5.5% by the time statisticians got done with it. The range of estimates is between -2.5% and +0.5% with the consensus for a 1.0- 1.5% contraction in the economy. A potential monkey wrench could be thrown into the works tomorrow as the government releases its benchmark revisions which update GDP data from prior years. What are the odds 2008 will be revised lower? I’d bet pretty good…
July 30 2009, 9:03pm | Comments »
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Beijing's dollar trap
Fears over the value of China's dollar holdings have prompted moves to internationalise the currency
July 30 2009, 9:00pm | Comments »
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7-year note auction solid
USD/JPY is easing slightly after the US 7-year note auction went off without a hitch. The bid to cover was 2.63 and the yield 3.369%. US yields are easing along the curve after the auction calendar draws to a close for the week. USD/JPY has pulled back a touch, to the high 95.60s from the high 95.80s thirty minutes or so ago.
July 30 2009, 8:08pm | Comments »
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USD/JPY continues climb; 96.00 barriers rumored
USD/JPY continues to climb this afternoon, rising as far as 95.88 so. Far, Given the rumors of 95.50 barriers earlier, it stands to reason that there are more at 96.00. Technical resistance is not seen until the 96.25 level. Should US bonds rally after the seven-year note auction, due momentarily, USD/JPY could see better buying levels on dips. 95.40 is support.
July 30 2009, 7:58pm | Comments »
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HKEx takes top position from CME
The US futures exchange has been toppled as the world's largest exchange by market capitalisation, as it grapples with regulatory changes
July 30 2009, 7:44pm | Comments »
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Larger forex reserves key to confidence: IMF
Despite the rupiah having strengthened since the second quarter, larger foreign exchange reserves are crucial to retain investor confidence in Indonesia and ...
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July 30 2009, 7:21pm | Comments »
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Europeans expect prices to tumble
Eurozone consumers increasingly expect prices to tumble in the year ahead even as the region's economy recovers from its severe recession, according to a European Commission survey that could stoke fears of deflation
July 30 2009, 7:20pm | Comments »
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Beijing's dollar trap
Fears over the value of China's dollar holdings have prompted moves to internationalise the currency
July 30 2009, 7:19pm | Comments »
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Near-term risk to USD/JPY? A good auction
USD/JPY has held up very well this week despite tepid demand for US Treasuries at this week’s auctions. The higher yields resulting from the uninspired auctions are a factor as are signs today of Toshin demand (demand from Japanese investment trusts).Throw in some risk appetite and it’s happy days for the dollar. The seven-year note auction results are set to be released in a just under an hour. If the auction is well-received, yields may drop and USD/JPY could suffer a setback. USD/JPY pullbacks have been limited to the 95.40s near-term. A break below 95.35 will see some short-term bulls head to the sidelines.
July 30 2009, 7:08pm | Comments »
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July 30 2009, 7:00pm | Comments »
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Sterling lifted by rising house prices
Sterling was among the best performing of the major currencies against a generally weaker dollar, partly thanks an equity rally
July 30 2009, 6:50pm | Comments »
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UK house prices rise for third month
House prices rose by 1.3 per cent in July, according to the latest figures from Nationwide. But economists remain wary of forecasting that housing is heading back into another boom
July 30 2009, 6:37pm | Comments »
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FOREX-Dollar falls as stock rally lifts risk appetite
... the ECB should not view current interest rate level as a floor," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. ...
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July 30 2009, 6:31pm | Comments »
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